Chart of the Month: July 2025

Markets have been surprised by persistent positive economic data, but questions loom over how long this will last amid ongoing tariff uncertainty and geopolitical shocks. Beyond the July 9th trade deadline, attention will turn to the ECB and Fed meetings later this month, where both central banks are expected to maintain current rates. In the UK, fiscal uncertainty poses downside risk with markets pricing in an 80% chance of a rate cut in August.