Chart of the Month: September 2023

For most of H1 2023, the composite PMIs stayed in expansionary territory as the acceleration in services sector offset the downturn of the weaker manufacturing sector. However, the past month indicated a fast deceleration in the services component, dragging the composite PMI into contractionary territory across the UK and EU economies. An advanced decline in the composite PMIs would show the cumulative tightening filtering through which would start to flag the prospect of a GDP decline later in Q3 2023 emphasising a recession scenario.