Keeping the Black Swans Grounded: a New Approach for Managers of Financial Risk

Published: May 01, 2025

00:00

Geopolitics Hedging Macroeconomics Risk Management Trade Finance

With disruption showing no signs of slowing in 2025, TMI's Tom Alford speaks with Paul Stafford, Co-founder and CTO of Deaglo, about a risk modelling blind spot that financial managers may be overlooking, and could avoid.

On Black Swan events, Stafford argues that while they can’t be predicted, they can be planned for. He challenges whether most risk managers, including treasurers, are truly equipped to respond when the unexpected hits.

Featured on this episode

Host

Tom Alford

Deputy Editor, Treasury Management International

Speaker

Paul Stafford

Co-founder & CTO, Deaglo

Latest Podcasts from the series

Cash Efficiency: The Value-Enabling Imperative of Treasury

Adam Taplinger (PwC) explores why cash efficiency has become a strategic imperative for treasurers and CFOs in today’s volatile markets.

Predict, Prevent, Protect: The New Cyber Playbook for Treasurers

Dr. Ruth Wandhöfer (Blackwired) explores how treasurers can strengthen their defences as banks shift to a predict-prevent-and-defeat approach to cyber risk.

Neural Treasury: The Role of AI in the Evolution of Corporate Treasury

Treasury management is rapidly transforming, and neural treasury (AI, Robotics, Machine Learning) is catapulting this evolution.

Closing the Liquidity Gap: Making the most of the TMI and NTAM Global Treasury Investments Survey 2025

Tom Alford (TMI) speaks with Tory Hinton (Northern Trust Asset Management) to discuss findings from the 2025 Global Treasury Investments Survey, which collated insights from over 300 treasurers. They examine why liquidity remains a dominant concern, along with the rise of MMF adoption, evolving investment policies, and the growing necessity of technology and tokenisation. Tory […]

Demystifying Tokenised MMFs and other Liquidity Innovations

Sam Jacob (BNY) explains why liquidity management remains front-of-mind as corporate treasury transitions further towards a digital ecosystem.

For the Greater Good: Why Digitalisation Should Serve Treasury, Not the Other Way Round

Arnault Gitzinger (Datalog TMS) explores how treasurers can ensure that digitalisation serves their strategic goals rather than driving them.

Overcoming Adoption Hurdles in Corporate Payments

TMI’s Eleanor Hill speaks with Wim Grosemans (BNP Paribas) about how treasurers are adapting to the fast-changing payments landscape.

The Future of AML: From Regulation to Real-World Results

Eleanor Hill (TMI) sits down with Peter Reynolds (ThetaRay) live at the 2025 Sibos Conference to discuss how developments in AML are changing the day-to-day reality of transaction banking. Together they explore the impact of Europe’s new single AML rulebook, the rise of AI-driven compliance, and how greater transparency, data governance, and harmonisation promise to […]

Treasury in Transition: Managing FX Risk Amid Structural Change

Learn from Michiel Mannaerts about the impact of geopolitical factors on FX risk and strategies for enhanced resilience.

Verified Identity in Treasury: Why LEIs Matter More Than Ever

Live from Sibos, TMI’s Eleanor Hill speaks with Alexandre Kech (GLEIF) about how verified organisational identity is reshaping corporate treasury.

ISO 20022 – Global Standard, Regional Realities

Camilla Bullock and Joanne Fraser share a comprehensive analysis of how various regions are embracing the ISO 20022 standard.

Inside the Next Wave of Corporate Payments Innovation

Live from Sibos, TMI’s Eleanor Hill speaks with Kevin Flood (FIS) about the next wave of payments innovation and what it really means for corporate treasurers.

Seconds, Not Days: The New Standard for Corporate Treasury

Carl Slabicki (BNY) discusses the rapid rise in uptake of instant payments and what it means for corporate treasurers globally.

Treasury Through the Eyes of a CFO: a 360 View on Strategy, Leverage and Governance

Sanjay Wadhwa (360 ONE) discusses how treasurers can navigate asset-liability mismatches, balance leverage, and meet CFO priorities.

Treasury Beyond Borders – Crossroads of Commerce: How Asia’s Treasurers are Redefining Risk and Liquidity

Yvonne Yiu and Sridhar Narayan (HSBC) outline how Asia’s treasury landscape is adapting to trade tensions and evolving supply chains.

Making MMF Investment Even More Intelligent

Discover the unique advantages of Fund Channel in addressing treasurers’ need for advanced analytics and real-time investment insights.

Treasury Beyond Borders – Treasury’s AI Future: Balancing Efficiency, Trust and Human Judgement

In this episode of Treasury Beyond Borders, Eleanor Hill (TMI) speaks with Rahul Badhwar and Allen Li (HSBC) about how treasurers can benefit from AI today, and where its limits remain. They discuss the role of AI in automating workflows, improving data analysis, and supporting risk management – while underlining the importance of governance, transparency, […]