For most of H1 2023, the composite PMIs stayed in expansionary territory as the acceleration in services sector offset the downturn of the weaker manufacturing sector. However, the past month indicated a fast deceleration in the services component, dragging the composite PMI into contractionary territory across the UK and EU economies. An advanced decline...

As US core inflation shows signs of trending back toward the Fed target of 2%, the diverging trends of the ECB and BoE are apparent. Whilst core price momentum has slowed in the Eurozone, the UK is still in the midst of spiralling wage price increases, leaving the BoE in a precarious position. The three...

Stickier than expected UK core inflation, buoyed by continued upward pressure from wage growth, has forced the market to significantly revise policy expectations from the Central Bank, in turn causing the UK yield curve to invert sharply and reach levels not seen since the LDI crisis.

UK headline CPI fell below 10% for the first time since September 2022. Some might have expected the drop in headline inflation to give the market and the BOE some solace but core inflation (ex food and energy) reaccelerated to a 31 year high. Core inflation is proving “sticky” which is a concern for the...

Investors found solace as the US regional banking woes didn’t morph into a more systemic banking crisis. This relief was reflected by markets repricing their expectations of any imminent monetary policy easing by the Fed. Nevertheless, the US regional banking crisis seems far from over, and all eyes are on any second round economic impacts...

The markets expectation for rate cuts in the second half of the year is mainly driven by concern of a potential recession as opposed to lower inflation. That concern has been sparked by SVB’s collapse and what it could mean for future credit growth, with both supply and demand under pressure. For those who want...

More resilient economic growth, strong labour markets and stickier core inflation has caused the market to revaluate its “pivot” thesis and all but abandon any hope of rate cuts during 2023. For those who want further insights on Eurozone, UK and US markets you can read the latest monthly market update here.

With signs inflation has peaked and may be turning, the Central Bank jumbo hiking cycle is coming to an end. If the market’s inflation expectations for 2024 are correct (inflation closer to the 2% target) it would allow central banks to unwind their restrictive monetary policy to a more neutral level, resulting in interest rate...