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天气风险: 不能再置之不理 (IFRS and Weather Risks: Now is the Time)

Jean-Louis Bertrand——昂杰高等商学院(ESSCA)金融学教授、巴黎欧洲金融市场协会“气候和金融创新”工作组成员暨Metnext公司天气风险管理顾问

华尔街在财务指标达标上给各公司施加了很大压力,并迫使其财务人员采用严格的对冲方案来应对销售和收入的波动。为应对外汇、利率及偶尔的商品风险,大部分公司都投入了一定资源来执行和管理国际财务报告准则合规方案。至今为止,天气风险还没引起各公司的注意。但很多研究表明,天气风险对企业财务状况和利润的影响远超过货币和利率风险。

我们都知道极端天气事件会给公司造成极大损失,但这只是冰山一角。气温、降水和日照每天的变化也会给商业活动造成很大影响,更重要的是,它们会对公司的利润额产生影响。 最近伦敦的强降雪带来的影响就是一个很好的例证。

最近三十年,公司的财务人员已学会了用衍生工具来应付各种财务风险。然而,他们能做到这一点并不仅仅是因为他们可利用各式各样的金融产品。他们能管理风险是因为他们能识别并了解他们所面临的风险,以及这些风险可能带来的商业后果。此外,国际会计准则委员会还提供了报道和评估这些风险,以及相应对冲方案的结构框架。如果财务专家和投资者想知道外汇、利率和商品价格的波动会对税息折旧及摊销前利润产生什么影响,他们知道如何在年报中找到相关信息,而天气风险则完全不同。天气可能成为公司需要应对的下一个危机,特别是如果他们完全没有准备的话。

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IFRS and Weather Risks: Now is the Time

by Jean-Louis Bertrand, Professor of Finance, ESSCA

Member of the “Climate and Financial Innovations” working group, Paris-Europlace and weather risk management consultant at Metnext

Wall Street has put a lot of pressure on corporates to meet the numbers and forced treasurers to tackle sales and earnings volatility through the use of rigorous hedging programmes. Most companies have dedicated resources to implement and manage IFRS compliant programmes to cover foreign exchange, interest rate and sometimes commodity exposures. To date, weather risks have not been on the radar screen, yet many studies confirm they can have financial consequences on the business and profits that can be far in excess of what currencies or interest rates can generate.

Treasurers have foreign exchange, interest rates or commodity risks under control, but is this the case for their most significant risk?